Economic growth and stock returns have been weaker one year later

MAIN POINTS

An inverted yield curve is not a sufficient condition for a U.S. recession.

Tight financial conditions and/or weakness in the services sector would increase recession risk more meaningfully.

Inversion has been followed by inc...

Stocks and bonds gain when Fed policy becomes more accomodative.

Main Points:

• U.S. and international stock prices rise after a first Fed rate cut. Gains are strongest when there is no U.S. recession.

• Bond prices consistently rise prior to an initial rate cut, but are stagnant afterwards.

• Rate cuts can h...

The recent stock market volatility, along with talk of tariffs and political uncertainty is creating some discomfort with many investors. The Economics area of TD Ameritrade published some thoughts recently regarding the remainder of 2018 & 2019.  Click here for more information.

We recently passed the five-year anniversary of the market's trough due to the financial crisis. On March 9, 2009, the Dow Jones closed at 6507.04; the S&P 500 closed at 676.53; and the Nasdaq closed at 1268.64. On March 10, 2014, the Dow closed at 16,418.68; the S&P 500 closed at 1877.17; ...