LWM Blog

Stocks trounce bonds with double-digit gains

MAIN POINTS

Stock markets around the world rallied strongly in 2019. Returns likely to be more normal in 2020.

Bonds rallied for the first three quarters due to global and trade uncertainty, but dropped in Q4.

Election uncertianty and high optimism and risks ...

Back-to-school sales suggest holiday sales growth is at risk.

MAIN POINTS

Retail stocks typically underperform in December.

Tariffs and projected weak holiday sales growth are additional risks for Retailing.

While internet sales continue to take share from department stores, even companies like Amazon a...

Consolidation typically starts now and ends in May

MAIN POINTS

In the first half of 2020, the risk for a political overhang to the stock market is high.

Near-term risks continue to include earnings expectations and the trade war with China.

Once a presidential winner has been identified, the market has ...

Economic growth and stock returns have been weaker one year later

MAIN POINTS

An inverted yield curve is not a sufficient condition for a U.S. recession.

Tight financial conditions and/or weakness in the services sector would increase recession risk more meaningfully.

Inversion has been followed by inc...

Stocks and bonds gain when Fed policy becomes more accomodative.

Main Points:

• U.S. and international stock prices rise after a first Fed rate cut. Gains are strongest when there is no U.S. recession.

• Bond prices consistently rise prior to an initial rate cut, but are stagnant afterwards.

• Rate cuts can h...